GOLD COMEX SETTLES $ 23 LOWER $ 1561
FUNDAMENTAL
The EU debt situation shared the spotlight with China Monday as Chinese monetary authorities loosened monetary policy over the weekend by reducing reserve requirement ratios on domestic bank reserves. The move follows recent weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. And there is still fallout from the news late last week when JP Morgan announced a $2 billion or more trading loss in just a few weeks’ time. All this has created keener trader/investor uncertainty in the market place, which is bullish for the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasuries and German bonds—and bearish for raw commodity markets. This week looks to be an extra important trading week for many markets, including the precious metals.
TECHNICAL
Daily momentum tools, such as the 9-day RSI (relative strength index), are at deeply oversold levels. That indicator is currently at 19%, below the 30% oversold line. Markets can trade at oversold or overbought levels for weeks or even months during extremely strong trends, but the oversold level also puts the bears on notice for a potential reversal or snapback move.
Interestingly, the last time the 9-day RSI was at the 19% level was in mid December—just prior to the spike low to $1,528 on December 29. At that time a bullish divergence formed on the momentum indicator and prices rallied higher.
Any approach and test of the December low will be critical for the gold market near term. A sustained a sharp decline below $1,528 would break the intermediate term neutral trend and turn the medium term trend bearish. Declines of several hundred dollars per ounce could be targeted if that were to unfold.
Conversely, this major support level at $1,528 could offer a stalling point and a floor for the recent gold market declines. It is a crucial zone for traders to monitor near term.
CONCLUSTION : Gold lost 1.7% today as gold is fast approaching its December 2011 lows just as forecast. Expect this pressure to continue. The key to me will be how the market reacts as prices near $1530/1535 in the June contract. The 100 day MA on the weekly chart comes in at $1515. Expect below $ 1550 will be short lived in the market and gold bugs keep the trend line between $ 1550-$1750.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTENCE LEVEL FOR MAY 15th
RESISTANCE # 2………………$1602.00
RESISTANCE # 1………………$1582.00
PIVOT………………………. …$1566.00
SUPPORT # 1…………………..$1545.00
SUPPORT # 2…………………..$1530.00
MCX
RESISTANCE # 2………………INR 28490
RESISTANCE # 1………………INR 28390
PIVOT……………………..……INR 28260
SUPPORT # 1…………………..INR 28140
SUPPORT # 2…………………..INR 28025
INTRADAY RECOMMENDATION : RISK TAKER BUY GOLD 28000-28050 TGT 28150 28250 28350 SL 27850
Happy Trading
Rahul Kumar
Gold Analysist
Call me for Trade set-up : 969-0022-884
Write me : comexgoldfuture@yahoo.com
Join me : http://facebook.com/comexgoldfutue
FUNDAMENTAL
The EU debt situation shared the spotlight with China Monday as Chinese monetary authorities loosened monetary policy over the weekend by reducing reserve requirement ratios on domestic bank reserves. The move follows recent weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data. And there is still fallout from the news late last week when JP Morgan announced a $2 billion or more trading loss in just a few weeks’ time. All this has created keener trader/investor uncertainty in the market place, which is bullish for the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasuries and German bonds—and bearish for raw commodity markets. This week looks to be an extra important trading week for many markets, including the precious metals.
TECHNICAL
Daily momentum tools, such as the 9-day RSI (relative strength index), are at deeply oversold levels. That indicator is currently at 19%, below the 30% oversold line. Markets can trade at oversold or overbought levels for weeks or even months during extremely strong trends, but the oversold level also puts the bears on notice for a potential reversal or snapback move.
Interestingly, the last time the 9-day RSI was at the 19% level was in mid December—just prior to the spike low to $1,528 on December 29. At that time a bullish divergence formed on the momentum indicator and prices rallied higher.
Any approach and test of the December low will be critical for the gold market near term. A sustained a sharp decline below $1,528 would break the intermediate term neutral trend and turn the medium term trend bearish. Declines of several hundred dollars per ounce could be targeted if that were to unfold.
Conversely, this major support level at $1,528 could offer a stalling point and a floor for the recent gold market declines. It is a crucial zone for traders to monitor near term.
CONCLUSTION : Gold lost 1.7% today as gold is fast approaching its December 2011 lows just as forecast. Expect this pressure to continue. The key to me will be how the market reacts as prices near $1530/1535 in the June contract. The 100 day MA on the weekly chart comes in at $1515. Expect below $ 1550 will be short lived in the market and gold bugs keep the trend line between $ 1550-$1750.
DAILY SUPPORT AND RESISTENCE LEVEL FOR MAY 15th
RESISTANCE # 2………………$1602.00
RESISTANCE # 1………………$1582.00
PIVOT………………………. …$1566.00
SUPPORT # 1…………………..$1545.00
SUPPORT # 2…………………..$1530.00
MCX
RESISTANCE # 2………………INR 28490
RESISTANCE # 1………………INR 28390
PIVOT……………………..……INR 28260
SUPPORT # 1…………………..INR 28140
SUPPORT # 2…………………..INR 28025
INTRADAY RECOMMENDATION : RISK TAKER BUY GOLD 28000-28050 TGT 28150 28250 28350 SL 27850
Happy Trading
Rahul Kumar
Gold Analysist
Call me for Trade set-up : 969-0022-884
Write me : comexgoldfuture@yahoo.com
Join me : http://facebook.com/comexgoldfutue
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